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CS COMP 149 - “How to Solve It”
Irrationalities, Facts, Fallacies and Perceptions - Critical Thinking - Fall-Spring
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How to Solve It
Irrationalities, Facts, Fallacies and Perceptions

"People are afraid of flying and terrorism and bird flu when in reality the most dangerous part of a trip is the car ride to the airport."
Tom Brosnahan
http://turkeytravelplanner.com/details/Safety/DangerStats.html

"And the most dangerous place of all is your dinner table! "

Here are some statistics of risk factors. These are for "the average American," but I assume they'd be similar (or higher) for citizens of other countries (except for the gunshot wound, of course—because of the insane number of privately-owned firearms in the USA).

Basically what they show is that if you're afraid of dying from a terrorist attack, you should give up flying, swimming, boating, walking on city streets, working, skiing, being in snowy or stormy places, crossing the street and most especially driving or riding in cars, because those activities are riskier—in the case of car travel far riskier—than being anywhere near terrorists or flocks of chickens.

And enjoying an unhealthy modern lifestyle, with little physical activity and meals rich in unhealthy salt, sugar, carbs and fats, is far, far more risky than anything else!

Your chance of dying from these causes is...

Heart disease (smoking related disease)

1 in 300

Cancer (smoking related disease)

1 in 509

Gunshot wound

1 in 9450

Car accident

1 in 18,800

HIV/AIDS

1 in 19,400

A fall (especially at home)

1 in 20,700

Skin cancer (suntanning and smoking related disease)

1 in 37,900

Pedestrian accident

1 in 45,200

Injury at work

1 in 47,600

Motorcycle accident

1 in 118,000

Influenza

1 in 159,000

Drowning

1 in 225,000

Bicycle accident

1 in 341,000

Boating accident

1 in 402,000

Smallpox vaccination

1 in 750,000

Lightning

1 in 4,260,000

Bus accident

1 in 4,400,000

Train accident

1 in 5,050,000

Earthquake

1 in 5,930,000

Skiing or snowboarding

1 in 6,330,000

Avalanche

1 in 8,140,000

Airline accident

1 in 8,450,000

Terrorist attack

1 in 9,270,000

Dog attack

1 in 10,900,000

Flood

1 in 18,200,000

Amusement park ride

1 in 70,000,000

Malaria

1 in 93,800,000

Shark attack*
"Jaws" to the contrary notwithstanding...

1 in 94,900,000

The International Shark Attack File (ISAF) investigated 105 alleged incidents of shark-human interaction occurring worldwide in 2005. Four fatalities occurred in 2005, down from seven in 2004 (the five-year average from 2001-2005 was 4.4 per year).
http://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/fish/sharks/statistics/2005attacksummary.htm

...what if security measures against terrorism were examined with a more critical eye? The risk of terrorism is not being assessed in a rational way and is receiving a disproportionate amount of resources. This can have grave consequences, probably resulting in significantly more loss of life than a major terrorist attack.

Consider the risk of death from terrorism on US soil. Here are some statistics:

  • First World Trade Center bombing – 6 fatalities
  • NYC World Trade Center 9/11 – 2749 fatalities
  • Oklahoma City bombing – 169 fatalities
  • Unabomber – 3 fatalities
  • Olympic Park bombing – 1 fatality

The total is 2928 fatalities. 

This has occurred over the past 15 years. 
That’s about 195 lives per year. 

Now, consider other risks. Flu deaths are estimated to be around 30,000 to 40,000 in a good year.  Another 40,000 die in auto accidents each year!

Terrorism is nowhere near these danger levels.

On the scale of things, dying from terrorism is a very tiny risk.
http://prawfsblawg.blogs.com/prawfsblawg/2005/05/security_privac.html

First Semester

Second Semester

Critical Thinking:
Goals
Introduction
What is it?
Abstract Reasoning
Arguments & Claims
Principles
Modeling & Questions
Common Concepts
References

*Vocabulary
*Carlin Oxymorons
*6 Basic Mistakes 
*Baloney Detection
*Irrationalities,Fallacies
*7 Rules Thinking Skills
*Knowledge for Business
*The Plan
*Dangerous Ideas